Bitcoin: Supply & Demand

This is a thinking exercise in calculating Risk/Reward.
As of this moment, Bitcoin is valued at $44,600.

It’s down from it’s All-Time high of ~$68K, but $44K is still a significant amount for something you can’t touch, feel, or even comprehend. I mean, this started at $0, only 13 years ago.

We know that there can never be more than 21M Bitcoin ever mined.
The SUPPLY is FIXED.

In fact, one can argue it is well below 21M and shrinking!
1M is locked up in the mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto’s, account.
There are umpteen stories of early adopters who had hundreds of thousands stored in hard drives and lost it. Individuals lose their keys everyday. Without the keys, it’s virtually destroyed.

So with the Supply side fixed (or shrinking), what about the Demand side?

Consider the following:
Microstrategy bought and keeps buying more. Other corporations have followed suit, like Square (now Block), Tesla, and more. KPMG just announced that they are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet.
→ The odds of more companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet FAR outweighs the odds of the early companies selling. As more money enters the market, the price stabilizes. As the price stabilizes, more money can enter the market. DEMAND from corporate balance sheets will go UP.


Microstrategy bought and keeps buying more. Other corporations have followed suit, like Square (now Block), Tesla, and more. KPMG just announced that they are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet.
→ The odds of more companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet FAR outweighs the odds of the early companies selling. As more money enters the market, the price stabilizes. As the price stabilizes, more money can enter the market. DEMAND from corporate balance sheets will go UP.

El Salvador has declared Bitcoin legal tender. There is rumor of another South American company following suit. India has stepped back from the position of banning Bitcoin outright, and is looking at how to regulate it. Russia recently announced they are looking to regulate, and even mine Bitcoin themselves with excess energy. Seemingly, every week we hear of a US politician expressing their support of Bitcoin. Even the IMF, who condemned El Salvador’s move, recently invited Strike’s CEO, Jack Maller, to speak with them to educate them on Bitcoin and the Lightening Network.
→ The odds of more countries removing their skepticism/banning of Bitcoin to support and regulation FAR outweighs the odds of banning it. As more regulation is accepted, the more participants feel comfort in participating. DEMAND from country citizenry will go UP.

USA surpassed $30 trillion in debt. The money printer continues to go brrrrr. Do you think that is ever stopping? When looking at the value of Bitcoin in USD, if that flood of USD supply keeps going while the supply of Bitcoin shrinks, where does that tilt the balance of the BTC:USD ratio?

Bitcoin’s market cap is ~$846B. Gold is at ~$10T.
As a store of value, ask anyone under 30, which store of value do they prefer?

I am NOT saying go put your life savings into Bitcoin.

One of the biggest mis-conceptions: “I can’t afford a Bitcoin”
Bitcoin is divisible into Satoshis (Sats). A Satoshi is one hundred millionth of a single bitcoin (0.00000001 BTC).

I’m constantly “Stacking Sats”. $50 here, $100 there.
Once every couple of weeks. Seems like a good risk/reward trade off for a small percentage of my savings.

I still think it’s pretty early.
What do y’all think?